During the Spring Festival, the international agricultural futures prices rose sharply, ICE continue to refresh the record high of cotton, CBOT wheat, corn, soybeans are also breaking the previous high record high to enter. Encouraged by this, the domestic agricultural futures market compensatory growth have emerged after the holiday, ale by the North, Drought Huanghuai winter wheat producing areas of news, it is favored by the funds, the first trading day after the holiday to expand the board after a nearly daily limit to close range. When most investors this ground food crops - wheat soaring bull market of agricultural products raised again, the ferocious rally domestic wheat, soybeans has grown rapidly to calm down, it is inevitable that some investors chasing tangled, if earlier smell smell adjusted children, later admitted some of the loss can be avoided! However, the callback in the end this wave of agricultural products to be found with or without aura it? The answer is yes. To better bargain hunting, however, the election is the key to the species.
ale soaring overdraft weather premium
since last July, from Russia, Ukraine and other places dry and climate-induced agricultural bull market seems to not end linkage, North China, Huang-Huai winter wheat production Drought weather in winter and spring reproduction area rekindled investor worries about the safety of international food. Careful analysis is not difficult to find on the usual tepid ale for China, up nearly 7% of the one-day advance weather premium increases that are suspect.
First, there is north, drought in major wheat-growing regions Huanghuai performance of meteorological drought, is not the most media hype of the China Meteorological Administration, February 9, according to satellite remote sensing monitoring shows that, despite the relative humidity of the soil from the shallow point of view, typical of this winter drought year 2008/2009 drought and soil moisture bias over the same period, but since 8 September 2010 North China winter wheat region Huanghuai above normal precipitation than the same period the year 2 percent to 1 times more abundant soil moisture storage, so in addition to north-central Henan and Anhui provinces in the southern wheat growing deviation, the 2011 winter wheat in northern growing overall preference than in 2009, while according to Ministry of Agriculture, Crop Watch scheduling, as of February 7, north, winter wheat in Huang a, the proportion of two types of vaccine was 81.1%.
Secondly, the reason why wheat yield can be 6 years in a row, not all because of good weather the weather, drought in wheat-producing areas, flood control, water conservancy work also played a very good role. According to the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, Vice Minister, Ministry of Water Resources Minister Chen Lei on the 17th briefing, despite the lack of winter wheat region in the northern region effective rainfall, drought continues, but most of the current irrigated winter wheat areas with better conditions, winter wheat areas in 8 provinces 2.77 million mu of winter wheat, eight or more with irrigation, water irrigation in spring and winter wheat region secure most of the surface above normal water storage capacity overall than last year, the water table is relatively appropriate.
the last 6 years in a row increase China's wheat reserves so unashamedly, even if a serious cut, it will not impede the domestic wheat supply, but does not compete for the international grain resources. Supply and demand, according to the latest report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that China's wheat stocks in 2010/11 6,000 million tons, while China's annual consumption of wheat will actually little more than 100 million tons, even though production was severely reduced 20 million tons (17%) from last year is 115 million tons down to less than 1 million tons of wheat stocks in China should also be 4,000 tons.
layout far month contract funds in advance
overdraft if the weather premium ale is a type of surge fuse the adjustment of agricultural products, then the funds in advance on the layout of the forward contracts as it early the adjustment of the wave farm lay hidden. After the Spring Festival, the domestic agricultural futures contract month positions far from the rapid increase in agricultural products, led by soybean meal in January 2012 contract has been quietly replaced in September 2011 contract, the most active trading volume as the main contract, and is back in a soybean months prior to the completion of the main transfer of the contract 1109-1201. The case of forward contracts Masukura substantially the same listing in just less than 20 days of soybean oil, corn, cotton and other agricultural products who, while in previous years to achieve the above-mentioned varieties of the same positions in forward contracts, the scale of months to go to 4,5, In contrast, this year's early action fund of 3 months.
funding was brought forward to give the layout of agricultural contracts forward contracts recently, while taking into account the recent agricultural contract since last July has been ahead of gains since the weather in advance of this year's premium, the latter speculation is limited; the same time , along with inflationary pressures become more significant in recent months, the contract face greater risk of policy control. Of funding, or raising the deposit reserve ratio or interest rates, tightening liquidity measures China will continue, otherwise the United States brought the second quantitative easing policy will be difficult to ease liquidity pressures. Politically, soybeans, oil, corn, wheat and other agricultural products of the State Reserve auction will continue to carry out, in the tightening of funds, policy control with, the food, the recent oil price pressure doubled.
and forward contracts not only the natural barriers of time, the policy is difficult to reach the hands of short-term, but also in natural disasters, La Nina popular occasion, weather disasters, the continued threat of crop yield to investors provides a lot of imagination. Recent long-term political pressure and forced the capital ahead of the weather premium from the far nearly abandoned.
beans, the value of parity is still depression
know ahead of time to give up funds in recent months, the layout of the far month contract as well as premium-style ale soaring overdraft weather herald the coming of course adjust the market good, But in order to bargain hunting, the election is still the key to the species, after all, the majority of funding has led to increase of agricultural products alike, and chase risky. Mandarin index of agricultural products from the Financial Statistics of view, since last July, the total index of agricultural products rose 42%, which rose 27% cereals, fats and oils rose 45%, soft goods rose 67%. Obviously, to cotton, sugar-based soft commodities rose to run in the forefront of agricultural products; to soybean oil, vegetable oil, palm oil-based fats and oils rose center; to soybeans, corn, cereal-based gains ale lowest further comparison, we find that 26% of soybeans, soybean meal 28%, corn 30% increase is smaller varieties of cereals.
clear parity, the soybean, soybean meal and corn compared to other domestic agricultural products have certain advantages, however, lower parity legumes (soybean and soybean meal) is obviously more upside potential. First of all, up to 80% of soybeans makes dependence on foreign domestic prices can not deviate from international beans beans the price for too long. After all, loss of time will affect the import of domestic soybean supply, but simply to reduce import tariffs does not fundamentally solve the problem. Moreover, from the government's willingness and ability to control for the relative ease of control of maize self-sufficiency, after all, the State Reserve each year the proportion of total consumption of soybean is less than 10%, while the proportion of the country there are 30% of corn storage. Finally, from planting soybeans and corn at home and abroad benefit, the current soybean / corn price ratio will make the corn more soybean acreage diverted Moreover, earlier in the planting time of maize sowing will have more choices. Therefore, no matter from external dependence, or the ability of government regulation, or planting effectiveness, with the advantage of parity is more long-term investment value of soybeans. Thailand Institute of Hong Sun Park, the Great Wall Futures
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